Brexit Briefing - May 2019

In which @RoryStewartUK explains how terrible “no deal” is pic.twitter.com/wDxZtuJIOb

— Rupert Myers (@RupertMyers) May 30, 2019

In one sense a lot has changed since the last Brexit Briefing.  Mrs May has announced that she will cease to be the leader of the Conservative Party on the 7 June 2019.  Elections have been held for the European Parliament at which the Brexit Party appeared to have the largest vote but the total votes of the parties opposing brexit were greater than the total votes of the Brexit Party, UKIP and the Conservatives. In another sense, very little has changed for the options are still the same as they have always been.

The UK can leave the EU on 31 Oct 2019 and face massive tariffs and restrictions on its exports in its largest market that are faced by none of its major competitors inside and outside the EU. It can stay which mean that we retain unrestricted market access but would disappoint a lot of people who voted for the Brexit Party, UKIP, the Conservatives and perhaps the Labour Party in the recent elections. Or we can take the deal of the 14 Nov 2019 which Parliament has rejected numerous times.  The chances of negotiating another with governments that regard no deal as less damaging to their interests than one for which at least some of the Tory party leadership hopefuls lobby seem forlorn to say the least,

The advice that I have given to businesses in the UK remains substantially the same as it has been for over a year.  There is no certainty as to which of those options will be taken.  Businesses that can transfer their manufacturing and service facilities from the UK should continue to do so.  Those that cannot, should do the best they can by stockpiling, developing goods and services that will still be competitive even with discriminatory tariffs and other restrictions and they should look for new markets wherever they can be found.

I suppose one thing that should be mentioned is that the decision to issue a summons in a private prosecution against Tory leadership front runner, Boris Johnson MP, has been criticized vehemently in some quarters.  I am not going to enter the discussion because the matter is sub judice but I will put a link to the District Judge's decision so that readers can judge for themselves as to whether it was well reasoned and properly considered.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or brexit generally should call me on 020 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact page.