British Proposals for Renegotiating the Northern Ireland Protocol

Author Heenah Licence CC BY-SA 4.0 Source Wikimedia Commons

 

Jane Lambert

The pickle in which HM government finds itself over the Northern Ireland Protocol to the agreement between the EU and the UK for the UK's withdrawal from the European Union was hardly unexpected. If there is to be regulatory divergence between the UK and the EU there have to be customs inspections and formalities somewhere.  If the re-establishment of customs posts on the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is unacceptable to this country's European and American allies, then inspections and formalities have to take place between Great Britain and both parts of the island of Ireland.

Immediately after the end of the implementation or transition period provided by art 126 of the withdrawal agreement, there was disruption in the supply of goods from Britain to Northern Ireland.  These led to street protests and calls for the denunciation of the Protocol if not the whole of the withdrawal agreement.  But there are signs that Northern Ireland retailers are sourcing more and more products from within Northern Ireland, the Republic or the rest of the EU.  That is, of course, weakening economic ties with Great Britain and strengthening ties with the Republic. Ultimately that could lead to the cession of Northern Ireland to the Irish Republic. While Irish unification would be welcomed by some in Great Britain it would be regarded as a calamity not only by Northern Ireland Unionists but also by many members of the British Conservative and Unionist Party.   

Mrs Theresa May was offered an arrangement similar to the Northern Irish Protocol but she rejected it on the ground that it was something that no British Prime Minister could accept.  That raises the question of why her immediate successor did just that.  Para 13 of the UK Government position paper Northern Ireland Protocol: the way forward (CP 502) published on 21 July 2021 offers the following explanation:

"However Parliament’s insistence in the BennBurt Act that the UK could not leave the EU without an agreement radically undermined the Government’s negotiating hand; and the final compromise, while delivering the fundamental aim of a clear Brexit, and recognisably based on the UK’s proposal, included several elements which would prove to cause difficulties subsequently: notably, though not only, the EU’s insistence on customs arrangements between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, with detail to be worked out subsequently; and the failure to provide for Northern Ireland’s consent to enter the arrangements."

That does not make a lot of sense.  Had the government's negotiating hand not been "undermined" the government would have been free to take the United Kingdom out of the EU without any agreement on anything including the border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland.  That would inevitably have led to border controls and probably security forces to protect them.

The doleful consequences of the Protocol are summarized in para 20 of the position paper:

"Supply chains have been disrupted and costs increased, with staff redeployed to deal with new bureaucracy, impacting investment and growth. Consumers have seen real impacts: at least 200 companies in Great Britain have stopped servicing the Northern Ireland market; plants and trees long-sourced from Great Britain can no longer be stocked in nurseries or garden centres in Northern Ireland; supermarkets have reduced their product lines due to the delays and barriers in moving goods; and the costs of deliveries for those who do serve the market have continued to increase. The effects are felt more broadly too. Medicines are at risk of discontinuation because the hurdles to clear to reach the small Northern Ireland market make supply unviable. And pet owners, including those reliant on assistance dogs, have faced the prospect of unnecessary vaccinations and treatments, and bureaucratic certification hurdles simply to travel within the United Kingdom."

If this is true, the Northern Irish Protocol is clearly not working for the benefit of British suppliers to Northern Ireland but that does not mean that consumers in that province are going hungry.  There are signs that supplies from Great Britain are being replaced by supplies from Ireland and other EU member states (see InterTradeIreland Cross-Border Trade & Supply Chain Linkages Report).

In the position paper, the government is threatening to invoke art 16 of the Protocol.   It is hard to see how that will help.  The first paragraph of the article provides:

"If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the Union or the United Kingdom may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures. Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of this Protocol."

It would appear that "safeguard measures" taken under this article are to be proportionate, short-term and to be taken only in an emergency.  If such measures lead to an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Protocol, the other party may take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance in accordance with art 16 (2).  Extensive consultations are required before a party may resort to art 16.

The revision to the Protocol that the British government appears to want is inspection-free entry of goods that are intended for consumption in Northern Ireland and full controls for goods intended for the Republic and beyond.   How this would work is not clear because most exporters to the Republic would be expected to choose the M4 to Fishguard or the A55 to Hollyhead rather than the long drive to Cairnryan. The only advantage of the latter would be the opportunity to smuggle. 

The other concession that the government seeks is to remove the resolution of disputes from the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union. As EU law applies to the Protocol it is unlikely that there can be much movement there.

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