Brexit Briefing September 2018

Treading Water

Author Lance corpora; Erin McKnight
Licence Copyright waived by US government

Source Wikipedia

Jane Lambert

The theme of this month's Brexit Briefing is treading water.  There have been a lot of events like the Salzburg summit and Mrs May's reaction to it, the Labour and Tory Party conferences and the publication of Guidance on how to prepare for Brexit if there's no deal.  The government has not fallen. The white paper on the future relationship with the EU has not been abandoned.  There is growing popular support for a second referendum in all the political parties despite resistance from the Prime Minister and very lukewarm support from the Leader of the Opposition.

It is clear from the government's guidance notes that exiting the EU on 29 March 2019 would come at a cost for most businesses.   I have reviewed just two of those notes on patents (see Patents if there is no deal 3 Oct 2018) and geographical indications (see Geographical Indications after Brexit 6 Oct 2018 NIPC Branding).  It would also be bad for at least some of our neighbours as Dáithí O’Ceallaigh, a former Irish ambassador to London, explained in his lecture at Cardiff University on 28 Feb 2018 (see Brexit from an Irish perspective - Dáithí O’Ceallaigh  YouTube 28 Feb 2018).   Yet that is what will happen unless agreement is reached on every issue in negotiation including the thorny issue of the Irish border.

Yet how to avoid checks and inspections between one country that is within the single market and another that is not is a conundrum to which there seems to be no obvious solution.   If, for example, free movement of labour is permitted by Ireland but not by the UK, what is there to stop a migrant from another part of the EU from flying to Dublin and then taking a train to Belfast or indeed a ferry to Fishquard.

The possibility of a further referendum with "remain" being an option is unlikely but slightly less unlikely than it was a month ago.   It could result from a stalemate in Parliament between those favouring a clean break Brexit now and those desiring as little disruption of trade and investment with the remaining member states as possible.

As the outcome could be a sharp sudden break  on 29 March, an implementation period between 29 March and 31 Dec 2020 or maybe even no Brexit at all, treading water seems a sensible option for most businesses, certainly over the next few months.

Anyone wishing to discuss this briefing or the consequences of Brexit generally should call me on 020 7404 5252 or send me a message through my contact form.

Post Script
The Rt Hon Dominic Raab MP has delivered this statement to the House of Commons on the withdrawal agreement negotiations and HM government's preparations for quitting the EU without such an agreement.