Brexit Briefing - June 2019

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Jane Lambert

As the purpose of this website is to advise rather than to exhort, I will leave it to others to decide whether a Conservative leadership election is the best use of the time that the remaining 27 member states of the European Union allowed this country under art 50 (3) of the Treaty of European Union.  Having said that, the leadership contest cannot be ignored because both candidates seek to renegotiate the draft withdrawal agreement before that extension runs out.  Their respective plans for Bexit have been analysed succinctly by the YouTube channel TLDR (see Boris Johnson's Brexit Plan - Brexit Explained and Jeremy Hunt's Brexit Plan - Brexit Explained).

Even though both candidates stress that they hope to conclude a withdrawal agreement with the EU, preparations for the UK's departure without such as agreement are continuing in both the UK and the remaining member states.  On the whole, the EU appears to be more relaxed than the UK about the prospect probably because it believes that the UK will be hurt by a no-deal departure much more than the remaining member states (see my article EU Preparations for a "No-Deal" Brexit  2 July 2019). According to the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report and Record for July 2019, British financial institutions could probably survive the economic disruption and market volatility that is likely to result from a disorderly brexit. Indications of the preparedness of the rest of British industry are a lot less encouraging (see George Parker UK not ready for a no-deal Brexit, confidential cabinet note warns 12 June 2019 Financial Times).

One of the principal economic arguments for brexit has been that the UK could greatly increase its trade with the rest of the world if it were not obliged to impose the common external tariff (see Martin Howe QC Leaving the EU on WTO terms will pull down the barriers to world trade and cut prices for consumers 20 Aug 2019 Brexit Central).  Since the UK government served notice of its intention to leave the EU the Department for International Trade has concluded the following trade agreements:

• Andean countries
• CARIFORUM trade bloc
• Chile
• Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc 
• Faroe Islands
• Iceland and Norway
• Israel
• Liechtenstein
• Pacific states
• Palestinian Authority
• South Korea (agreed in principle and expected to sign shortly)
• Switzerland.

Note that those agreements make provision for intellectual property and geographical indications the latter of which I discussed in Geographical Indications after Brexit on 22 June 2019. The UK has also signed mutual recognition agreements with the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or brexit, in general, should call me on 020 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact form.