Brexit - A Significant Change of Tone

Rt Hon Michael Gove MP

Author Chris McAndrew

Licence: Attribution 3.0 Unported
Source Wikipedia Michael Gove 

Jane Lambert

It is not often that a notice from the Cabinet Office publicizes a newspaper article even when that article has been written by a cabinet minister.  The arrival of the authored article No-deal is a very real prospect. We must ensure we are ready: article by Michael Gove in the mailboxes of subscribers to the "Immediate updates to Brexit" mailing list at 14:35 yesterday is therefore significant.  That article had appeared earlier that day in The Sunday Times.

HM Government has been publishing Guidance on how to prepare for Brexit if there's no Deal since 22 Aug 2018 (see Jane Lambert And if there is no deal .......... 24 Aug 2018). Until now, those guidance notes have emphasized the government's intention to leave the European Union in accordance with a withdrawal agreement negotiated pursuant to art 50 (2) of the Treaty on European Union and that it was planning for withdrawal without such an agreement just in case. Yesterday Mr Gove wrote:

"No deal is now a very real prospect, and we must make sure that we are ready."

The article still pays lip service to the hope of negotiating a withdrawal agreement with the remaining EU member states.  Gove writes:

"It’s our aim to ensure we can leave with a deal. We want to continue with warm and close relations with our friends, allies and neighbours in the EU. We will do everything in our power to conclude a good agreement that honours the referendum result and secures a brighter future for us outside the single market and the customs union." 

But since the government's precondition for recommencing negotiations is abandoning the backstop which would mean sacrificing the interests of one of the remaining 27 member states in favour of those of the governing party of the departing state, it is hard to see that happening. 

As I noted in Irish Preparations for No Deal 20 July 2019, "The rationale for keeping the threat of leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement is that the prospect of disruption and other negative consequences for the economies of the 27 remaining member states will force the governments of those countries to require the Commission negotiators to make concessions." As Ireland is geographically separated from the other remaining member states by us to the east and north and a longish sea crossing to Britanny to the south the calculation must be that pressure on Ireland even tacitly and gently applied will yield concessions.   As I also said in that article: "It is not a very attractive negotiating position either for us or for our trading partners and it may well do a lot of long term harm, but, for some in the UK, that will not matter if the threat is effective." 

In EU Preparations for a "No Deal Brexit" 2 July 2019, I noted the Commission's press release of 12 June 2019 ‘No-deal' Brexit: European Commission takes stock of preparations ahead of the June European Council (Article 50).  The Commission acknowledged that a withdrawal without an agreement in accordance with art 50 (2) of the Treaty on European Union "will obviously cause significant disruption for citizens and businesses and would have a serious negative economic impact" but such serious negative economic impact will "be proportionally much greater in the United Kingdom than in the EU27 Member States."  In Irish Preparations for a No Deal 20 July 2019 I concluded that no deal is "clearly not an outcome that anyone in Ireland wants (even though there may be some benefits for Ireland such as the transfer of some financial services businesses from the City of London to Dublin) but it is one that the government of the Republic seems at least as able to handle as that of the United Kingdom."

As for British preparedness, the Institute for Government which describes itself as "the leading think tank working to make government more effective" has today published Preparing Brexit: No Deal  by Joe Owen, Maddy Thimont and Jack Jill Rutter.  The report states:

"With huge barriers to agreeing and ratifying a deal by the end of October, the prospect of a no-deal exit is rising. But no deal would not be the end of Brexit. The UK will be out of the European Union, but the all-encompassing job of adapting to the new reality and building a new relationship with the EU will still be incomplete. The biggest questions Brexit will still need to be settled. The difficult choices that have been unresolved for the last three years will not evaporate overnight on the 31 October. And Brexit will remain the key dividing line in a Parliament in which Johnson’s government has a wafer-thin majority, and one that is constantly under threat."

The tasks for the new government in the next few months are herculean. They include putting the whole government on a no-deal footing, introducing new legislation for the government of Northern Ireland and probably an emergency budget.  The report warns that no deal is a step into the unknown, that there is no such thing as "managed no-deal" and peak preparedness for brexit may have passed.

The government has announced a massive advertising campaign to sell no deal to the British public (see Christopher Hope Boris Johnson to unveil biggest ad campaign since Second World War to prepare for 'no deal' 29 July 2019 Daily Telegraph).  If despite that campaign brexit proves to be unpopular with the public the government can always blame the obduracy of its former trading partners.  That has always worked in the past though it may not do so in the future as the EU has less and less to do with our affairs.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article, the Cabinet Office's email, the Institute for Government's report or the legal consequences of brexit generally should call me on 020 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact form.