Brexit Briefing October 2019

Author Toby Ord  Licence CC BY-SA 2.5  Source Wikipedia Halloween

Jane Lambert

The UK did not leave the European Union at 23:00 last night for the reasons I explained in Johnson accepts art 50 (3) Extension of 28 Oct 2019 and it is unlikely to do so until after 13 Dec 2019 at the earliest.  Instead, there is to be a general election on 12 Dec 2019.  Brexit is undoubtedly an issue in that election and at present, it is probably the most important one but that may change as the campaign develops.

Voters have a clear choice between:

• Immediate revocation of the notification of intention to withdraw from the European Union under art 50 (2) of 29 March 2017 in accordance with the decision of the Court of Justice in Wightman and others v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union ECLI:EU:C:2018:999, [2018] 3 WLR 1965, [2018] EUECJ C-621/18, [2018] WLR(D) 747, EU:C:2018:999 which is the policy of the Liberal Democrats;
• Exiting the EU on the terms of the draft withdrawal agreement of 19 Oct 2019 which is the policy of the Conservatives;
• Negotiating yet another withdrawal agreement and putting any renegotiated terms with an option to remain to the public in a second confirmatory vote which appears to be the policy of the Labour Party; and 
• Breaking off negotiations for a withdrawal agreement and just leaving which appear to be policies of the Brexit Party and the United Kingdom Independence Party.

Business owners and members of the public at large will have to decide for themselves which works best for them when casting their vote. Regardless of their personal preferences, they will have to watch the campaign and follow the polls closely so that they can take investment decisions that will take advantage of, or protect their business from, the consequences of a particular outcome. For instance, if they envisage that the election will result in an environment that will make it harder or more expensive to conduct business with the 27 remaining member states from the UK they may wish to accelerate the transfer of part of their undertaking to one of those remaining member states.

As this is a legal and not a political blog I do not expect to say much on the campaign.  Indeed, there is unlikely to be a November Brexit Briefing or anything else until after 13 December 2019. Anyone wishing to discuss this article or brexit generally may call me on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact page.