The UK's Future Relationship with the EU - Ursula von der Leyen's Speech and Meeting with Johnson

Standard YouTube Licence

Jane Lambert

If the draft agreement on the terms of the UK's departure from the European Union is ratified, that country will cease to be a member state of the European Union at 23:00 on 31 Jan 2020.  The European treaties and legislation will continue to apply to the UK until 31 Dec 2020.  Thereafter a new relationship will subsist between the UK and the remaining member states.

The nature of that relationship will depend on negotiations between the British government and the Commission which can begin only after the UK leaves the EU. Some indication as to the parties' aspirations can be gleaned from President Ursula von der Leyen's speech at the London School of Economics on 8 Jan 2020 and the press release of her meeting with Mr Boris Johnson that took place later that day.

In her speech, President von der Leyen warned that any future relationship between the UK and EU cannot and will not be the same as before. She continued that it cannot and will not be as close as before

"because with every choice comes a consequence. With every decision comes a trade-off. Without the free movement of people, you cannot have the free movement of capital, goods and services. Without a level playing field on environment, labour, taxation and state aid, you cannot have the highest quality access to the world’s largest single market.  The more divergence there is, the more distant the partnership has to be."

The President added that without an extension of the transition period beyond 2020, agreement on every single aspect of the new partnership cannot be expected and that parties would have to prioritize. The EU's objectives will be to work for solutions that uphold the integrity of the EU, its single market and its customs union and on that, there can be no compromise.

The press release stated that the Prime Minister was ready to start negotiations on the future partnership and Canada-style FTA as soon as possible after 31 Jan.  That did not sound a million miles away from the President's position:

"But we are ready to design a new partnership with zero tariffs, zero quotas, zero dumping. A partnership that goes well beyond trade and is unprecedented in scope. Everything from climate action to data protection, fisheries to energy, transport to space, financial services to security. And we are ready to work day and night to get as much of this done within the timeframe we have."

For the rest of this year, this blog will monitor the negotiations for the UK's future partnership with the EU on the New Relationship Negotiations page as well as the progress of the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill and negotiations for new trade agreements with the USA and other third countries.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or the consequences of the UK's withdrawal from the EU generally may call me on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 during normal UK office hours or send me a message through my contact form.

Mrs May's Mansion House Speech: Some Home Truths At Last

Source Guardian,  Standard YouTube Licence

 Jane Lambert

The Prime Minister's speech at the Mansion House on Friday has received a mixed reception.  According to Toby Helm "most Conservative MPs and peers gave the prime minister a period of grace after Friday’s address."  However, Lord Heseltine dismissed it as "more detail on a set of demands that the European Union had made clear all along it would never agree to" (see Tories’ Brexit unity fades as Heseltine slams May’s speech 2 March 2018 The Guardian).

I hold no brief for the Prime Minister, but I think that is a little unfair.  She did speak some home truths though I fear she may have pulled her punches:

1. Brexit will be no bed of roses:  "We are leaving the single market. Life is going to be different. In certain ways, our access to each other's markets will be less than it is now. How could the EU's structure of rights and obligations be sustained, if the UK - or any country - were allowed to enjoy all the benefits without all of the obligations?"
2. "Even after we have left the jurisdiction of the ECJ, EU law and the decisions of the ECJ will continue to affect us." Aside from the niggle that the initials "ECJ" are no longer used as that tribunal is now known as the Court of Justice of the European Union ("CJEU") and has been for many years, I welcome that remark.  It will make it easier to reach agreement on the withdrawal treaty and it may just make it possible for the UK to remain a party to the Uniform Patent Court Agreement.  On the other hand, she omitted to say that the UK will lose its judge and advocate general on the Court who have hugely influenced its decisions since 1973. 
3. No State Aids or Featherbedding:  "If we want good access to each other's markets, it has to be on fair terms. As with any trade agreement, we must accept the need for binding commitments - for example, we may choose to commit some areas of our regulations like state aid and competition to remaining in step with the EU's."

The reason Mrs May had to say these things is that there has been a lot of wishful thinking about Brexit. Some have argued that the shock of the departure of its third largest member state would rip the EU apart. That could happen but there are no signs of its happening yet.  It is equally possible that the remaining member states could integrate more quickly and become stronger and more influential than ever. Another bit of wishful thinking is that German car manufacturers, Italian white goods makers and French farmers will force their governments to make concessions were we ever to play hardball. I have never understood that argument because we are not going to start making those goods in Britain or sourcing those goods from elsewhere. Tariffs might dent demand for EU goods and services but it won't destroy it and the business communities in those countries know it.  The fact is that the UK is not negotiating from a position of strength and will on many issues have to take what the remaining member states have to offer or leave it.

Finally, the Institute for Government has produced an excellent, tabulated analysis of the PM's speech with "Area" in come column, "What the Prime Minister said" in another and "What this means" in the third (see The Prime Minister's Mansion House Brexit speech 2 March 2018 The Guardian).  I was about to do my own analysis along similar lines but this is so much better.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or Brexit in general should call me on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact form.