Brexit Briefing November 2019

Author Sgt. Tom Robinson RLC/MOD
Licence OLG v.1.0
Source Wikipedia 10 Downing Street

Jane Lambert

Voters' options have narrowed since my October Brexit Briefing and, consequently, so do the likely outcomes of this election. That is why there is a November Brexit Briefing even though I said it was unlikely that I would publish one last month.

The parties have clarified their positions.   The Brexit Party is fielding candidates only in a minority of seats.  There is no longer any possibility of its forming a government.  Consequently, there is no prospect of our leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement within the meaning of art 50 (2) of the Treaty on European Union.  Having said that, the Conservatives have announced that they will not seek an extension to the implementation period provided by art 126 of the draft withdrawal agreement after 31 Dec 2020. As it would be difficult to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement between the 31 Jan and 31 Dec 2020, the effect may be the same. The Labour Party has promised a referendum after renegotiating a withdrawal agreement that would align the UK closer to the European Union in which its Prime Minister would be neutral.  The leader of the Liberal Democrats has acknowledged that she is unlikely to form the next government which means that revocation of the government's notice of intention to leave the EU of 29 March 2017 is also unlikely.

As the opinion polls have consistently shown the Conservatives significantly ahead although their lead appears to have diminished recently, the likely outcomes are an overall majority for the Conservative Party - though perhaps not a very big one - or a hung Parliament.   If the Conservatives win an outright majority, they have promised to introduce legislation to ratify the draft withdrawal agreement before the end of the year.   If there is a hung Parliament in which either Conservatives or Labour emerge as the largest party, there is an outside chance that a minority administration may feel obliged to concede a second referendum.

Meanwhile, the rest of the EU is reforming intellectual property law.  In patents, the Council and Parliament adopted Regulation 2019/933 which should stimulate European generics and biosimilar companies by allowing them to manufacture for export to third countries or stockpile for launch while a supplementary protection certificate subsists. HM government appears to like that Regulation for it held a consultation on that Regulation's implementation after brexit (see my article Supplementary Protection Certificates - The Waiver Regulation 27 Nov 2019 NIPC Law).  In copyrights, the European Parliament and Council have adopted Directive 2019/790 on copyright and related rights in the Digital Single Market which should benefit data mining technologies and content providers.  Even though it is binding on the UK and could well benefit data mining and creative industries here has been very little discussion on the legislation in this country.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article should call me on 020 7404 5252 during office house or send me a message through my contact form.

Brexit Briefing - May 2019

In which @RoryStewartUK explains how terrible “no deal” is pic.twitter.com/wDxZtuJIOb

— Rupert Myers (@RupertMyers) May 30, 2019

In one sense a lot has changed since the last Brexit Briefing.  Mrs May has announced that she will cease to be the leader of the Conservative Party on the 7 June 2019.  Elections have been held for the European Parliament at which the Brexit Party appeared to have the largest vote but the total votes of the parties opposing brexit were greater than the total votes of the Brexit Party, UKIP and the Conservatives. In another sense, very little has changed for the options are still the same as they have always been.

The UK can leave the EU on 31 Oct 2019 and face massive tariffs and restrictions on its exports in its largest market that are faced by none of its major competitors inside and outside the EU. It can stay which mean that we retain unrestricted market access but would disappoint a lot of people who voted for the Brexit Party, UKIP, the Conservatives and perhaps the Labour Party in the recent elections. Or we can take the deal of the 14 Nov 2019 which Parliament has rejected numerous times.  The chances of negotiating another with governments that regard no deal as less damaging to their interests than one for which at least some of the Tory party leadership hopefuls lobby seem forlorn to say the least,

The advice that I have given to businesses in the UK remains substantially the same as it has been for over a year.  There is no certainty as to which of those options will be taken.  Businesses that can transfer their manufacturing and service facilities from the UK should continue to do so.  Those that cannot, should do the best they can by stockpiling, developing goods and services that will still be competitive even with discriminatory tariffs and other restrictions and they should look for new markets wherever they can be found.

I suppose one thing that should be mentioned is that the decision to issue a summons in a private prosecution against Tory leadership front runner, Boris Johnson MP, has been criticized vehemently in some quarters.  I am not going to enter the discussion because the matter is sub judice but I will put a link to the District Judge's decision so that readers can judge for themselves as to whether it was well reasoned and properly considered.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or brexit generally should call me on 020 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact page.