Brexit Briefing September 2019

Author US Government US Public Domain Source Wikipedia

Jane Lambert

At the beginning of September, the Liberal Democrats resolved at their party conference "to campaign to Stop Brexit in a General Election, with the election of a Liberal Democrat majority government to be recognised as an unequivocal mandate to revoke Article 50 and for the UK to stay in the EU". The month ended with the Conservative party conference at which the Prime Minister announced an alternative to the provisions of the draft withdrawal agreement that have been rejected by the House of Commons.

In the meantime, the government has been forced to publish its planning assumptions for a no-deal brexit known as Operation Yellowhammer, Parliament has passed the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 2) Act 2019 and the UK Supreme Court held that the decision to prorogue Parliament for 5 weeks had been unlawful (see The Prorogation Appeals: R (Miller) v PM and Cherry and Others v Advocate-General  24 Sept 2019).

What is going to happen over the next few months is anybody's guess.  The President of the Commission has promised in a press release dated 2 Oct 2019 to examine the legal text proposed by the British government "objectively" and in the light of its well-known criteria.  He added:

"The EU wants a deal. We remain united and ready to work 24/7 to make this happen – as we have been for over three years now."

However, there is unlikely to be enough time for the parties to modify the draft withdrawal agreement and obtain the necessary approvals by the end of the month. That points to a further extension which the prime minister has resolved not to seek and, even if he does, not all the remaining member states may be willing to grant it,  Although the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 2) Act 2019 makes it more difficult for the prime minister to withdraw the UK without a deal it does not preclude it altogether. My advice to readers is to continue planning for no deal.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or brexit generally may call me on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact page.

Operation Yellowhammer

Yellowhammer

Author Andreas Trepte

Licence CC BY-SA 2.5

Source Wikipedia Yellowhammer

Jane Lambert

Operation Yellowhammer is the code name for the UK government's contingency planning in the event of a no-deal brexit.   It is also the title of a short document headed "Operation Yellowhammer" setting out the British government's worse case planning assumptions as of 2 Aug 2019.  It was published pursuant to a Humble Address to the executive made on 9 Sept 2019.

The paper addresses the following risk areas:

• Transport systems
• People crossing borders
• Key goods crossing borders
• Healthcare services
• UK energy and other critical systems
• UK food and water supplies
• UK Nationals in the EU
• Law enforcement implications
• Banking and finance industry services
• Brexit and the Irish border
• Specific risks to overseas territories and Crown dependencies (including the effect of Brexit on Gibraltar), and
• National Security.

The basic assumption is that the EU will be "as a whole unsympathetic" and that public and business preparedness will be at a low level owing (among other things to "brexit fatigue" following two previous extensions to the art 50 (2) notice period.

It is important to stress that this blog is not a campaign document. Its purpose is to alert clients and others to the factors that need to be taken into account when planning their investments and expenditure over the next few months.   Should anyone wish to discuss this article or brexit generally, call 020 7404 5352 during office hours or send me a message through my contact form.