"Global Britain in a Competitive Age"

Author Eric Gaba Licence  CC BY-SA 4.0, Source Wikipedia Indo-Pacific

Jane Lambert

In Global Britain in a competitive age The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, the government has spelt out its objective in decoupling the United Kingdom from neighbours and allies with shared interests in the world's richest trading bloc. It may not be an attainable objective or even a desirable one but at least it is ascertainable.  The review reveals the direction of travel the first time since the referendum thereby allowing businesses and individuals to plan for the medium term.

The document consists of five parts and three annexes:

• The first part is the foreword in which the Prime Minister shares his vision for the UK in 2030 (pages 3 to 9).
• The second is headed "Overview" and is effectively an executive summary (pages 11 to 22).
• Part III is the national security and international environment to 2030 (pages 24 to 32).
• The "Strategic Framework" between pages 33 and 95 is the biggest part of the review and consists of 4 topics:
• The first is headed "Sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology" which is to be achieved by growing the UK's science and technology superpower and developing a cyber warfare capability.
• Shaping the open international order of the future which includes an "Indo Pacific Tilt" over 50 tears after Harold Wilson announced the UK's withdrawal from bases east of Suez.
• Strengthening security and defence at home and overseas includes expanding the nuclear arsenal more than 60 years after the cancellation of "Blue Streak".
• Building resilience at home and overseas.
• The last part is on implementation and consists of 2 ½ pages (96 to 99).

Annex A consists of a table listing spending priorities in the latest spending review,  Annex B is headed "Evidence and Engagement" and points to some of the people the authors of this review had consulted, The last annex is a glossary.

As an intellectual property lawyer, I should love to see the UK become a science and technology superpower with vibrant creative industries attracting investment and expertise from around the world.  I just can't see how it is going to happen. China applies for 1.4 million patents every year compared to the UK's 12,000. In the number of patent applications, the UK lies 9th behind China, the USA, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Russia and France (see Knoema Number of patent applications among residents).   In the European Patent Office. it consistently trails the Netherlands and Switzerland with a third and eight of its population respectively (see European patent applications per country of origin).

Although the UK economy may well bounce back once the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, there is no reason to suppose it will grow consistently at historically unprecedented rates over the next 9 years.  Even on the most optimistic forecasts, it will be overtaken by countries that can take advantage of economies of scale.  According to Statista the UK will slip from 5th place in 2919 to  9th by 2030 behind China with $31,731 billion, the USA with $22,920, India $7,972, Brazil $5,862, Japan $5,852, Russia $4,730, Germany $4,441, France 4,206 and the UK $3,664 (see "The 15 countries with the highest gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 (in billion U.S. dollars)").  

The review makes only one brief reference to the Belt and Road initiative, a massive road, rail, port and pipeline building project, on page 26 but fails to consider its impact on the world's economy.  It is likely to be massive. It will create a land bridge across the Asian and European continents by lowering the cost and speeding the transit of freight.  By so doing it will integrate the economies of all countries linked to that land bridge and increase still further the economic strength of China.

For this and other reasons, this review probably understates the consequences of the rise of China.  It tacitly acknowledges China's rise by referring in several places to a "multipolar" environment. However, if China has a GDP that is 38% larger than that of the USA the world will be distinctly unipolar.  If there is to be a new international order, Washington's influence will be diminished and that of middle-ranking powers such as the United Kingdom will barely register at all.  

The review makes all sorts of assumptions that may or may not be justified such as a continued union of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with England.  Surely any review of defence policy has to plan for the possibility of the closure of the nuclear facilities on the Forth and Clyde and the loss of military shipbuilding capabilities in Scotland. It should also plan for a resumption of terrorist activity in Northern Ireland if the Good Friday agreement is abandoned for any reason.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or any of the topics mentioned in it may call me on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact form.

The Draft Withdrawal Agreement: Getting Down to Business at Last

Jane Lambert

The draft withdrawal agreement that the European Commission published on 28 Feb 2018 has to be welcomed. As every lawyer (if not every business person) knows, there comes a time in every negotiation when the provisions that appear to have been agreed must be committed to writing. Then and only then can potential deal breaking issues be identified and perhaps addressed. The sooner that is done the greater the chance of a successful outcome.

The thing that struck me most about the draft agreement is its length: 168 articles plus protocols on Ireland and Cyprus each with its own annexes compressed into 118 pages. I am surprised by how much has been agreed or is capable of agreement. Obviously there are a few hot issues such as those in the Protocol on Ireland that could scupper everything but there is so much more that has been, or can easily be, agreed.

The main body of the draft is divided into the following Parts:

• Part 1 - Common Provisions
• Part 2 - Citizens' Rights
• Part 3 - Separation Provisions
• Part 4 - Transition
• Part 5 - Financial Provisions
• Part 8 - Institutional and Final Provisions.

Part 1 consists of 7 articles the most important of which is art 1:

"This Agreement sets out the arrangements for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ('United Kingdom') from the European Union ('Union') and from the European Atomic Energy Community ('Euratom')."

There follow definitions and interpretive provisions.

Arts 8 to 35 constitute Part 2 which are divided into 4 Titles. The first contains general provisions such as definitions and basic principles such as continuation of residence and non-discrimination. Title II divides into 3 chapters on rights related to residence, workers and the self-employed and recognition of professional qualifications respectively. Title III is on social security and Title IV contains final provisions.

The bulk of the draft treaty (arts 36 to 120) is in Part 3 which is also divided into Titles some of which are further subdivided into Chapters.  Title I is on goods placed on  the market. Title II on customs procedures, Title III on VAT and other duties, Title IV on intellectual property, Title V on police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, Title VI on judicial cooperation in civil and commercial matters, Title VII on data protections, Title VIII on public procurement and similar issues, Title IX on Euratom and related issues, Title X on EU administrative and judicial procedures, Title XI on administrative cooperation, Title XII on privileges and  immunities and Title XIII on other issues relating to the EU. Interestingly, the provisions of Title IV on intellectual property are silent on the Unified Patent Court and unitary patent. They cover the conversion of EU trade marks, registered Community designs and Community plant varieties into the corresponding British rights and the adaptation of provisions on supplementary protection certificates and the exhaustion of rights.

Part 4 contains 5 articles (arts 121 - 126) on the transition period.

Part 5 (arts 127 to 150) is divided into 7 Chapters covering currency (Chapter 1), the UK's contribution to the budget up to 2020 (Chapter 2), the European Central Bank (Chapter 3), the European Investment Bank (Chapter 4), European Development Fund (Chapter 5), Refugees in Turkey (Chapter 6) and Common Defence and Security (Chapter 7).

Part 6 spells out the continued jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union in the implementation period and beyond and the establishment at art 157 (1) of a joint committee to supervise and implement the agreement and resolve disputes.

This instrument is, of course, only a draft and it is likely to be changed over time but it sets out the likely framework of the withdrawal agreement contemplated by art 50 (2) of the Treaty on European Union as well as the transition or implementation period between 29 March 2019 and 31 Dec 2020. Should anyone wish to discuss this draft, he or she should contact me during office hours on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 or send me a message through my contact form.