"Global Britain in a Competitive Age"

Author Eric Gaba Licence  CC BY-SA 4.0, Source Wikipedia Indo-Pacific

Jane Lambert

In Global Britain in a competitive age The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, the government has spelt out its objective in decoupling the United Kingdom from neighbours and allies with shared interests in the world's richest trading bloc. It may not be an attainable objective or even a desirable one but at least it is ascertainable.  The review reveals the direction of travel the first time since the referendum thereby allowing businesses and individuals to plan for the medium term.

The document consists of five parts and three annexes:

• The first part is the foreword in which the Prime Minister shares his vision for the UK in 2030 (pages 3 to 9).
• The second is headed "Overview" and is effectively an executive summary (pages 11 to 22).
• Part III is the national security and international environment to 2030 (pages 24 to 32).
• The "Strategic Framework" between pages 33 and 95 is the biggest part of the review and consists of 4 topics:
• The first is headed "Sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology" which is to be achieved by growing the UK's science and technology superpower and developing a cyber warfare capability.
• Shaping the open international order of the future which includes an "Indo Pacific Tilt" over 50 tears after Harold Wilson announced the UK's withdrawal from bases east of Suez.
• Strengthening security and defence at home and overseas includes expanding the nuclear arsenal more than 60 years after the cancellation of "Blue Streak".
• Building resilience at home and overseas.
• The last part is on implementation and consists of 2 ½ pages (96 to 99).

Annex A consists of a table listing spending priorities in the latest spending review,  Annex B is headed "Evidence and Engagement" and points to some of the people the authors of this review had consulted, The last annex is a glossary.

As an intellectual property lawyer, I should love to see the UK become a science and technology superpower with vibrant creative industries attracting investment and expertise from around the world.  I just can't see how it is going to happen. China applies for 1.4 million patents every year compared to the UK's 12,000. In the number of patent applications, the UK lies 9th behind China, the USA, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Russia and France (see Knoema Number of patent applications among residents).   In the European Patent Office. it consistently trails the Netherlands and Switzerland with a third and eight of its population respectively (see European patent applications per country of origin).

Although the UK economy may well bounce back once the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, there is no reason to suppose it will grow consistently at historically unprecedented rates over the next 9 years.  Even on the most optimistic forecasts, it will be overtaken by countries that can take advantage of economies of scale.  According to Statista the UK will slip from 5th place in 2919 to  9th by 2030 behind China with $31,731 billion, the USA with $22,920, India $7,972, Brazil $5,862, Japan $5,852, Russia $4,730, Germany $4,441, France 4,206 and the UK $3,664 (see "The 15 countries with the highest gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 (in billion U.S. dollars)").  

The review makes only one brief reference to the Belt and Road initiative, a massive road, rail, port and pipeline building project, on page 26 but fails to consider its impact on the world's economy.  It is likely to be massive. It will create a land bridge across the Asian and European continents by lowering the cost and speeding the transit of freight.  By so doing it will integrate the economies of all countries linked to that land bridge and increase still further the economic strength of China.

For this and other reasons, this review probably understates the consequences of the rise of China.  It tacitly acknowledges China's rise by referring in several places to a "multipolar" environment. However, if China has a GDP that is 38% larger than that of the USA the world will be distinctly unipolar.  If there is to be a new international order, Washington's influence will be diminished and that of middle-ranking powers such as the United Kingdom will barely register at all.  

The review makes all sorts of assumptions that may or may not be justified such as a continued union of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with England.  Surely any review of defence policy has to plan for the possibility of the closure of the nuclear facilities on the Forth and Clyde and the loss of military shipbuilding capabilities in Scotland. It should also plan for a resumption of terrorist activity in Northern Ireland if the Good Friday agreement is abandoned for any reason.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or any of the topics mentioned in it may call me on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 during office hours or send me a message through my contact form.

Future Relationship Negotiations: The EU sets out its Stall

Standard YouTube Licence

Jane Lambert

The United Kingdom left the European Union on 31 Jan 2020 pursuant to the Agreement on the withdrawal of theUnited Kingdom of Great Britain and Nothern Ireland from the EuropeanUnion and the European AtomicEnergy Community ("the Withdrawal Agreement"). The Withdrawal Agreement provides for an implementation period during which EU law will continue to apply to the UK until 31 Dec 2020. One of the reasons for the implementation period is to enable the parties to negotiate a new relationship to take effect from 1 Jan 2021.

The parties have already agreed a framework for such a relationship in the Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the theUnited Kingdom ("the Political Declaration").  The European Council has now authorized the opening of negotiations with the UK for a new partnership agreement in the terms of the draft decision of 13 Feb 2020 and an addendum to the decision setting out directives for those negotiations.

The decision consists of 8 recitals and 3 articles.  The recitals refer to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration as well as Council guidelines of 30 March 2018 restating the Council's determination to have as close as possible a partnership with the UK covering trade and economic cooperation and also other areas including, in particular the fight against terrorism and international crime, as well as security, defence and foreign policy. Art 1 of the decision authorizes the European Commission to open negotiations for a new partnership agreement.  Art 2 nominates the Commission as the EU's negotiator.  Art 3 requires the negotiations to be conducted in consultation with the Working Party on the United Kingdom and in accordance with the directives contained in the addendum, subject to any directives which the Council may subsequently issue to the Commission.

The addendum is a much larger document consisting of 46 pages containing 172 paragraphs divided into an introduction and four Parts.  Paragraph 5 of the introduction reminds readers that:

"The negotiations of the envisaged partnership should be premised on the effective implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement and of its three Protocols. In this context, the envisaged partnership should continue to protect the Good Friday or Belfast Agreement reached on 10 April 1998 by the United Kingdom Government, the Government of Ireland and the other participants in the multiparty negotiations in all its parts, in recognition of the fact that the peace process in Northern Ireland will remain of paramount importance to the peace, stability and reconciliation on the island of Ireland. While preserving the integrity of the Single Market, the envisaged partnership should ensure that issues arising from Ireland's unique geographic situation are addressed."

Paragraph 9 acknowledges the very short duration of the implementation period. The Commission is urged to achieve as much as possible during that time and to be ready to continue negotiations after its expiry.

Part I of the addendum concerns "Initial Provisions".  Paragraph 12 recites the parties' core values and rights including a shared commitment to combat climate change which may or may not be reflected in this country's negotiations for a trade agreement with the USA.  Another shared commitment is maintaining a high level of data protection. The proposed partnership envisages future UK participation in some EU and Euratom programmes in cultural, scientific and other matters.

Part II concerns economics.  It should conform to the Agreement to establish the World Trade Organization and its policies for trade.  There should be free trade in goods, customs cooperation, trade facilitation and a measure of regulatory alignment.  Trade in services and the free flow of investment should be prioritized.  Intellectual property is mentioned specifically.  There are sections on financial services, competition, mobility of labour, transport cooperation and fisheries the last of which is likely to be particularly sensitive politically.

Part III covers security and addresses law enforcement and judicial cooperation, intelligence sharing, foreign policy coordination including sanctions, defence procurement, space, international development, refugees and infection control.

Part IV deals with institutional matters. Paragraph 155 proposes "a governing body responsible for managing and supervising the implementation and operation of the envisaged partnership, facilitating the resolution of disputes" Disputes that cannot be resolved through consultation should be referred to arbitration with provision for the referral of points of EU law to be referred to the Court of Justice of the European Union. That provision has been criticized by some but it is hard to see an objection. It merely provides machinery to access the Court where none exists right now.   The tribunal will have its seat in a national jurisdiction with direct access to national courts on issues of national law.

Anyone wishing to discuss this article or the new relationship negotiations generally should call me on +44 (0)20 7404 5252 during normal office hours or send me a message through my contact page.